Uncertainty in recurrence rates of large magnitude events due to short historic catalogs   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Tariq Mohammed  Gail M. Atkinson  Karen Assatourians 《Journal of Seismology》2014,18(3):565-573

Seismic hazard analysis requires knowledge of the recurrence rates of large magnitude earthquakes that drive the hazard at low probabilities of interest for seismic design. Earthquake recurrence is usually determined through studies of the historic earthquake catalogue for a given region. Reliable historic catalogues generally span time periods of 100–200 years in North America, while large magnitude events (M?≥?7) have recurrence rates on the order of hundreds or thousands of years in many areas, resulting in large uncertainty in recurrence rates for large events. Using Monte Carlo techniques and assuming typical recurrence parameters, we simulate earthquake catalogues that span long periods of time. We then split these catalogues into smaller catalogues spanning 100–200 years that mimic the length of historic catalogues. For each of these simulated “historic” catalogues, a recurrence rate for large magnitude events is determined. By comparing recurrence rates from one historic-length catalogue to another, we quantify the uncertainty associated with determining recurrence rates from short historic catalogues. The use of simulations to explore the uncertainty (rather than analytical solutions) allows us flexibility to consider issues such as the relative contributions of aleatory versus epistemic uncertainty, and the influence of fitting method, as well as lending insight into extreme-event statistics. The uncertainty in recurrence rates of large (M?>?7) events is about a factor of two in regions of high seismicity, due to the shortness of historic catalogues. This uncertainty increases greatly with decreasing seismic activity. Uncertainty is dependent on the length of the catalogue as well as the fitting method used (least squares vs. maximum likelihood). Examination of 90th percentile recurrence rates reveals that epistemic uncertainty in the true parameters may cause recurrence rates determined from historic catalogues to be uncertain by a factor greater than 50.  相似文献   

Authors’ Reply     

D.A. Zemo  K.T. O'Reilly  R.E. Mohler  A.K. Tiwary  R.I. Magaw  K.A. Synowiec 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2014,34(2):25-27

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Development and Testing of a Field Screening Method Based on Bubbling Extraction and Photoionization Detection for Measurement of Benzene and Total VOCs     

Catalina Espino Devine  Peter Bennett  Karen Synowiec  Sheldon Nelson  Rachel Mohler  Murray Einarson 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2014,34(3):95-104

A field screening method was developed for rapid measurement of benzene and gasoline range total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPHg) concentrations in groundwater. The method is based on collecting photoionization detector (PID) measurements from vapor samples. The vapor samples are collected by bubbling air through groundwater samples (air sparging) with a constant volume, temperature and sparging rate. The level of accuracy, sensitivity, precision, and statistical significance of the estimated concentrations, derived from the screening method, are comparable to conventional laboratory analytical results at concentrations equal to or greater than 150 µg/L for benzene and greater than 50 µg/L for TPHg. The method's concentration estimations can assist in making real‐time decisions regarding location of dissolved plumes and light nonaqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) source zones at many fuel release sites. The screening method was tested in the laboratory and in the field with 208 and 107 samples, respectively. The study concludes that the screening method can be used as a tool to aid in completing a site conceptual model as well as analyzing groundwater from monitoring wells.  相似文献   

Climate and coastal habitat change: a recipe for a dirtier ocean     

Shapiro K 《Marine pollution bulletin》2012,64(6):1079-1080

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GhostNet marine debris survey in the Gulf of Alaska--satellite guidance and aircraft observations     

Pichel WG  Veenstra TS  Churnside JH  Arabini E  Friedman KS  Foley DG  Brainard RE  Kiefer D  Ogle S  Clemente-Colón P  Li X 《Marine pollution bulletin》2012,65(1-3):28-41

Marine debris, particularly debris that is composed of lost or abandoned fishing gear, is recognized as a serious threat to marine life, vessels, and coral reefs. The goal of the GhostNet project is the detection of derelict nets at sea through the use of weather and ocean models, drifting buoys and satellite imagery to locate convergent areas where nets are likely to collect, followed by airborne surveys with trained observers and remote sensing instruments to spot individual derelict nets. These components of GhostNet were first tested together in the field during a 14-day marine debris survey of the Gulf of Alaska in July and August 2003. Model, buoy, and satellite data were used in flight planning. A manned aircraft survey with visible and IR cameras and a LIDAR instrument located debris in the targeted locations, including 102 individual pieces of debris of anthropogenic or terrestrial origin.  相似文献   

A Method for Direct Assessment of the “Non Rainfall” Atmospheric Water Cycle: Input and Evaporation From the Soil   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kudzai Farai Kaseke  Anthony J. Mills  Roger Brown  Karen J. Esler  Johannes. R. Henschel  Mary K. Seely 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2012,169(5-6):847-857

“Non rainfall” atmospheric water (dew, fog, vapour adsorption) supplies a small amount of water to the soil surface that may be important for arid soil micro-hydrology and ecology. Research into the direct effects of this water on soil is, however, lacking due to instrument and technical constraints. We report on the design, development, construction and findings of an automated microlysimeter instrument to directly measure this soil water cycle in Stellenbosch, South Africa during winter. Performance of the microlysimeter was satisfactory and results obtained were compared to literature and fell within the expected range. “Non rainfall” atmospheric water input into bare soil (river sand) was between 0.88 and 1.10?mm per night while evaporation was between 1.39 and 2.71?mm per day. The study also attempted to differentiate the composition of “non rainfall” atmospheric water and results showed that vapour adsorption contributed the bulk of this input.  相似文献   

Binary Mixtures of Permanganate and Chlorinated Volatile Organic Compounds in Groundwater Samples: Sample Preservation and Analysis     

Karen T. Johnson  Margie Wickham‐St. Germain  Saebom Ko  Scott G. Huling 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2012,32(3):84-92

Groundwater samples collected at sites where in situ chemical oxidation (ISCO) has been deployed may contain binary mixtures of groundwater contaminants and permanganate (MnO₄^–), an oxidant injected into the subsurface to destroy the contaminant. Commingling of the oxidant and contaminant in aqueous samples may negatively impact the quality of the sample as well as the analytical instruments used to quantify contaminant concentrations. In this study, binary mixtures comprised of (1) a multicomponent standard with permanganate and (2) groundwater samples collected at two ISCO field sites were preserved with ascorbic acid. Ascorbic acid reacts rapidly with the MnO₄^– and limits the reaction between MnO₄^– and the organic compounds in the mixture. Consequently, most of the compounds in the multicomponent standard were within the control limit for quality assurance. However, despite timely efforts to preserve the samples, the rapid reaction between permanganate and contaminant caused the concentration of several sensitive compounds to fall significantly below the lower control limit. Concentrations of volatile organic compounds in the field‐preserved binary mixture groundwater samples were greater than in samples refrigerated in the field and preserved upon arrival at the laboratory, indicating the time‐dependency and benefit of field preservation. The molar ratio of ascorbic acid required to neutralize KMnO₄ was 1.64 (mol ascorbic acid/mol KMnO₄); this provided a baseline to estimate the volume of ascorbic acid stock solution and/or the weight of crystalline ascorbic acid required to neutralize MnO₄^–. Excess ascorbic acid did not negatively impact the quality of the aqueous samples, or analytical instruments, used in the analyses.  相似文献   

Resolving three-dimensional anisotropic structure with shear wave splitting tomography     

David L. Abt  Karen M. Fischer 《Geophysical Journal International》2008,173(3):859-886

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Century‐long records reveal slight,ecoregion‐localized changes in Athabasca River flows          下载免费PDF全文

Stewart B. Rood  Geoff W. Stupple  Karen M. Gill 《水文研究》2015,29(5):805-816

Reports of abruptly declining flows of Canada's Athabasca River have prompted concern because this large, free‐flowing river could be representative for northern North America, provides water for the massive Athabasca oil‐sands projects and flows to the extensive and biodiverse Peace–Athabasca, Slave and Mackenzie River deltas. To investigate historic hydrology along the river and its major tributaries, we expanded the time series with interpolations for short data gaps; calculations of annual discharges from early, summer‐only records; and by splicing records across sequential hydrometric gauges. These produced composite, century‐long records (1913–2011) and trend detection with linear Pearson correlation provided similar outcomes to nonparametric Kendall τ‐b tests. These revealed that the mountain and foothills reaches displayed slight increases in winter discharges versus larger declines in summer discharges and consequently declining annual flows (~0.16% per year at Hinton; p < 0.01). Conversely, with contrasting boreal contributions, the Athabasca River at Athabasca displayed no overall trend in monthly or annual flows, but there was correspondence with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that contributed to a temporary flow decline from 1970 to 2000. These findings from century‐long records contrast with interpretations from numerous shorter‐term studies and emphasize the need for sufficient time series for hydrologic trend analyses. For Northern Hemisphere rivers, the study interval should be at least 80 years to span two Pacific Decadal Oscillation cycles and dampen the influence from phase transitions. Most prior trend analyses considered only a few decades, and this weakens interpretations of the hydrologic consequences of climate change. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Association of metals with plastic production pellets in the marine environment   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

Karen Ashton 《Marine pollution bulletin》2010,60(11):2050-2055

Plastic production pellets sampled from four beaches along a stretch of coastline (south Devon, SW England) and accompanying, loosely adhered and entrapped material removed ultrasonically have been analysed for major metals (Al, Fe, Mn) and trace metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Ag, Cd, Co, Cr, Mo, Sb, Sn, U) following acid digestion. In most cases, metal concentrations in composite pellet samples from each site were less than but within an order of magnitude of corresponding concentrations in the pooled extraneous materials. However, normalisation of data with respect to Al revealed enrichment of Cd and Pb in plastic pellets at two sites. These observations are not wholly due to the association of pellets with fine material that is resistant to ultrasonication since new polyethylene pellets suspended in a harbour for 8 weeks accumulated metals from sea water through adsorption and precipitation. The environmental implications and potential applications of these findings are discussed.  相似文献